A lot has been said about Nike‘s recent lagging performance, especially compared to up-and-coming sportswear and sneaker brands like On, Hoka and Lululemon. But according to one analyst, the narrative of the Swoosh’s diminishing market share may not be entirely accurate.
“Challenging sales trends, the rise of new competitors, and limited innovation has led many to believe Nike is losing market share globally,” wrote Morgan Stanley analysts led by Alex Straton in a Tuesday note to investors. “While some sources/analyses confirm that’s the case either globally or in select sub-sectors, our Euromonitor data analysis suggests Nike’s share has proven more resilient over the last four years.”
Euromonitor data, or aggregated retail equivalent sales for more than 190 sportswear brands across eight regions, suggests that Nike’s global sportswear market share has been “stable to higher” year-over-year as well as in the last four years between 2019 and 2023. It also points out that Nike has been the leader in market share gains in the sportswear industry since 2019.
More specifically, Nike’s North America footwear sales have “been the single largest driver of Nike’s share gains” between 2019 and 2023. What’s more, Nike brand, as opposed to Jordan Brand, was responsible for most of the company’s share gains in apparel, footwear and sports footwear since 2019.
“Converse has been Nike’s weakest performing brand in global footwear,” Straton added, citing a share loss from the brand on a year-over-year and versus 2019 basis.
Overall, the note paints a broader picture of the Swoosh’s persistent dominance in the sportswear world, despite its lag in specific categories like performance running. Since the pandemic, Nike has lost share to smaller, running-focused brands like Hoka, Brooks and On, all three of which have found success with their niche performance offerings. According to the 6,020 U.S. teens who responded to Piper Sandler’s 47th semi-annual survey this spring, Nike was the top choice among teens’ favorite footwear and apparel brands. However, the Swoosh also lost share in every category in the survey for the first time in several years.
When it comes to weaknesses, the report said China was Nike’s “most challenged geography from a market share perspective” since 2019, due to increased competition from domestic and premium apparel brands. Overall, the report noted that apparel is the biggest challenge for Nike’s market share position, but footwear is not as challenged.
“High level, it appears Nike, Puma, and On have all been picking up global footwear share ceded by Adidas,” Straton wrote. “While Lululemon has accomplished the same in apparel.”
